FORGET AI, LEARN WELDING & SPANISH

If You're in the U.S., That Is

Zeihan says that’s where the future is in the U.S., because we need to reindustrialize and we need extensive trade with Mexico etc. He says AI doesn’t have much of a future, because of deglobalization and decreasing trade with China. AI needs 30,000 computer sector components that will need to be made in the U.S. or nearby to run AI. But the parts will be of lower quality for the next decade or two. The energy needs for AI are more than the U.S. will have capacity for for some years. Nonetheless, I’ll continue to take advantage of free AI as long as it lasts, I imagine.

COMMENTERS

These are interesting comments under the video.

@garettjames6349 15 hours ago

1) China is not the most trade dependent country on Earth. Obviously. Belgium is number 1 with a trade to GDP ratio of 174%. Germany comes in at 21 with 120% trade to GDP, and China comes in way down the scale at around 37% trade to GDP (America is around 30% for comparison). 2) China's fertility rate is not 3x lower than America's. America's is about 1.79, China's is about 1. 3) Zeihan postulates China won't be a unified country in 10 years. Offers no basis for this assumption other than trade tariff disputes will cause the collapse. No further explanation. 4) Zeihan suggests we're looking at the end of the Han ethnicity by the end of this century. No follow up... 5) Zeihan suggests China doesn't have enough people under 50 to consume. China has about 880,000,000 people under 50. {The total population is likely only 700 million or less, so people under 50 would be about half that, i.e. 350 million or less. There seems to be good evidence that the Covid vaxes greatly reduced China’s population and that the counting of people has been fraudulent for decades.} America has about 230,000,000. Also, total population doesn't actually matter when considering a consumption v manufacturing based economy. 6) At 8min, Zeihan suggests that the Manhattan Project was easy compared to making iPhones... 7) Zeihan suggests America has the best education, best infrastructure, and that America is self-sufficient on energy. All of these claims are refuted by any serious international reports on these areas. 8) Zeihan says China is the fastest aging country. All standard reports show that while China is quickly aging, South Korea is aging the fastest. 9) At 11:35, Zeihan says the average German citizen is over 50 years old. All reports say the average age of Germans is 45.5. For reference, even Japan is 49.9, not over 50. These aren't obscure data points that are difficult to look up. 10) He then says Germany needs to bring in 2,000,000 people under age 25 every year for the next 20 years just to break even on population. It suggests that Germany's existing population will decline by 40,000,000 people / ~50% of the population in the next 20 years. He gives no evidence for this extraordinary claim. Just for the nerds out there (under the assumption that the death rate is 0.0118 and the population 84.1 million): Population in 2045 = 84.1 million × (1 - 0.0118)^20 ≈ 84.1 million × (0.9882)^20 ≈ 84.1 million × 0.787 ≈ 66.2 million ≈ 84.1 million - 66.2 million ≈ 17.9 million So with zero new births, and zero immigrants, Germany's population should be expected to decline by 17.9 million over 20 years, not 40 million. That would require 895,000 immigrants per year to shore up, not 2 million. And that is suggesting zero new births still. With a 0.00927 birth rate (current rate) and zero immigration, we now get a total population decline of ~4.1 million or 205,000 immigrants needed per year to break even. Let's get real though, he's just throwing out random numbers that "patriotic" people in the west want to hear. It's a living I guess. Anyway, that's just the first 12 minutes. This man really should be in the Trump cabinet.

@jeffswingdancer8302 6 days ago (edited)

Zeihan has been making a career out of predicting China's collapse. That type of sensational headline gets him lots of viewers, which brings in more money. {But it does seem to be collapsing.}

@DeftPol 6 days ago (edited)

I agree with Scott that the "out there" and provocative nature of Peter's predictions make for some interesting discussions, but I do think Scott could have come armed to this one with more points to push back on. I've listened to Peter a lot, and read a couple of his books, but I think he's wildly off on the energy transition and that his assessents on China includes a lot of wishful thinking and don't take into account actions China's long term planning machine might make - especially post Xi (who is in his 70s now). To expand: 1. Renewables: Solar isn't going up in cost; it's going down and getting more efficient almost every month at this point. In fact the cost of a solar panel is literally less than 1% of what they cost during the Carter Administration when the tech was first given serious attention. 2. China: The country's demographics are bad and the problems with corruption, poor capital allocation and trade exposure are all absolutely real. But this is still a country of over 1 billion people. {No, it’s way under 1 billion.} Even if the birth rate drops to the level of South Korea, you're still looking at a country with a population base in 100 years that is bigger than the US is today. Sure, the growth rate of the US may make them overtake China, during that period, but the "Han ethnicity" isn't going anywhere - heck let's not forget that China's diaspora is bigger than most countries as well {The recent diaspora isn’t that huge}. For the record though, Peter does get some important things right: I can still remember him predicting the Ukraine invasion taking place this decade whilst COVID was still raging and a lot of people thought he was living in the past, so his understanding of underlying global patterns does see him get things right that others don't see as well.

@spirotek 6 days ago (edited)

Fearing that China or Germany will ‘collapse’ because their populations shrink is like someone in 1880 worrying that a lack of horses will collapse the economy. AI and robotics now let productivity outrun headcount; the real challenge is ensuring the smaller workforce shares in the wealth those smart machines create.

@selfprojects1953 1 day ago

Boomers explaining to boomers about why boomers were wrong about everything they thought they knew is my new favorite comedy

@spring_in_paris 6 days ago

German here. Yes, we have the problem with an aging population here. That's why there are so many programs to integrate immigrants here. And by no means it is perfect. But we understand, for example, that language is the key to success, so language courses are paid with tax money for example. Than next step is encouraging to develop labor skills to integrate them into the market. What's interesting is that the very next generation adopts to the average amount of children in a family. Now needless to say it's not all sunshine and lollypops. There are also many people coming from war zones that are traumatized and have severe mental problems, which is a burden on our healthcare system. And of course the culture clash with different values need to be mentioned here as well. Some of the new influences are good and are welcome to enriching our own culture and some aren't. And those won't be tolerated. And quite frankly, if you don't follow our laws and values than Germany isn't the right place to settle. I work at the largest airport of Germany and many of my colleagues who did integrate and see this country as their home and help to keep the country prosperous are part of the community. Finally, with the new government, the topic of immigration is being addressed, a bit bumpy and too ass-crawly to please the extreme right at the moment, but no longer a taboo topic in the public political discussion. Let's hope we come to a civil conclusion and with that weaken the disgusting AfD.

@aquaticape68 2 days ago

What I love about Zeihan is that he draws attention to the important data

@medeology4660 4 days ago

15:50 They didn't abandon the trucks. The drivers were russian truckers, hired by a company Ukraine had set up (operating next door to the FSB office in Chelyabinsk).

@tophatpuma 1 day ago

Just for fun: Game theory partially supports Zeihan’s theory by highlighting China’s vulnerabilities (demographics, trade dependence), but it also reveals significant flaws. Zeihan overstates the inevitability and scale of China’s collapse, ignoring adaptive strategies like automation, trade diversification, and technological innovation. The Prisoner’s Dilemma, Chicken Game, and Ultimatum Game models suggest China faces high risks but can mitigate them through rational strategies. A cooperative game framework further undermines Zeihan’s deglobalization narrative, as global trade incentives favor stability. While China’s challenges are real, Zeihan’s predictions appear sensationalized, and game theory suggests a more nuanced outcome where China adapts rather than collapses. For a deeper dive into counterarguments, see “China: The Bubble That Never Pops” or “Why Nations Fail,” which emphasize institutional resilience and adaptability.

{If China is the totalitarian dictatorship that it seems to be, about the only good thing that can happen is that the dictatorship collapses and is replaced by good government.}

@fredpalazzo8835 34 minutes ago

Peter is not an historian and we use him as a seer to guess our future. He doesn't sweat being wrong when conditions change. And he's absolutely right to do so, having his own personal brand of sorting historic trends and giving us the best odds. Good job, Peter.

{Most commenters seem to have low opinions of Peter, but he sounds interesting to me.}